PNCLL Midseason Power Rankings
By Dan Wishengrad & Will Patton
Division 1
Through Wednesday March 25th, 2009
1. Simon Fraser (6-0 Overall; 4-0 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: #3
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #1
POWER RATING: 89.90
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Oregon, at Oregon State, at Montana, at Gonzaga
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Only time will tell if this is the best PNCLL team ever. But along with the SFU ‘99 and the UO ‘07 squads, this is surely one of the three best teams in our conference’s history. Those earlier Clansmen and Duck teams finished their seasons as national runner-ups. Anything less than the PNCLL’s first D1 national title will be a disappointment for this Canadian powerhouse.
WHY THEY CAN STAY HERE: They simply have it all – abundant talent up-and-down their deep roster, a powerhouse offense that is difficult to defend against and almost impossible to contain, an underrated defense, big-game experience, upperclassmen leadership and a smart, capable coaching staff.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: All the remaining conference games (including a showdown against Oregon in Eugene) are on the road. And the entire team could theoretically decide to skip out on Marilyn’s healthy, home-cooked, pre-game meal and come down with food poisoning at McDonald’s instead. Or hell could actually freeze over.
UNSUNG HERO: Middie Kevin Riley. Mostly overshadowed by the bigger offensive stars, Riley (13 goals, 7 assists) has stepped up his game while quietly putting together a solid season.
2. Oregon (5-2 Overall; 4-0 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: #11
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #11
POWER RATING: 83.05
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Simon Fraser, Washington, Oregon State (neutral
field), at Washington State, at Idaho
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Because they own at least the #2 slot until somebody below them in the hierarchy actually beats them. Young and still somewhat untested, the Ducks have a big OOC week of games to help prepare for next weekend’s big showdown in Eugene with SFU and UW. The offense can score, but must crank it up to another level against the likes of Chapman and SFU. The defense looks sound, but gave up far too many goals against top competition (BYU and UMD), so must continue to gel and improve as a unit.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: UO can regain the #1 slot they held from ’04-’07 by beating SFU next Saturday, and then running the table in their remaining conference games. Beating SFU twice in ‘09 seems a mighty tall order for the Ducks (or anyone else, for that matter), so perhaps a closely fought loss in the regular season might be the best scenario to lead to an outright win in the playoffs in May.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: No matter how the big match-up with Simon Fraser turns out next Saturday, the Ducks can’t overlook an equally-important game with the Huskies the next day. Oregon State and Idaho could also prove to be tough conference games later, so U of O must heed the old sports cliche and “just take them one game at a time.” The young coaching staff is also still largely untested, and has to prove it can lead the team to the promised land.
UNSUNG HERO: Defenseman Mike Gerrard.. With the loss to graduation of most of the top long-poles, the Junior from Washington State has emerged as the new stud on the Ducks’ close defense.
3. Washington (7-2 Overall; 4-1 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: n/a
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #22
POWER RATING: 80.23
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Oregon State, at Oregon, at Gonzaga, at Montana
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: The Huskies trounced Chico State to start the season and took perennial power #15 UCSB down to the wire in a game they led late, and have blown out four of the five conference opponents they have faced. In their most recent game, a twenty goal rout of a good D2 team showed that UW is still getting better under their first-year head coach. UW is getting no love from the pollsters, but the computer says that they’re right there behind Oregon as a solid #3 in the PNCLL, and stronger than a few of the ranked teams.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: Their fate is in their own hands. UW can virtually assure a playoff spot by simply splitting their four remaining games. With a strong offense that can light up the scoreboard when they’re clicking, UW can compete with anybody. Sweeping their final four games is not an impossible task, and combined with an Oregon win over SFU could possibly elevate the Huskies all the way up to the #1 seed.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: Those four game are all on the road, and there’s not an easy win on paper among them. The Dawgs have had a long history of playing better early in the season and then collapsing after Spring Break, so it remains to be seen in ‘09 if UW can reverse that trend. The close escape over UCLA and another bad loss to the Clansmen raise some red flags. The defensive rotation is very thin in front of their standout goalie, so any injury to a key long-pole could spell doom.
UNSUNG HERO: Defenseman Harrison Shoff. After playing with a shortie his first three years, he was asked to grab a pole for ‘09 and has proven to be a steady and effective performer all season long.
4. Montana (5-4 Overall; 4-2 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: n/a
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #37
POWER RATING: 76.89
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Gonzaga, Simon Fraser, Washington
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Four conference wins puts Montana in the lead for the final playoff spot. A big OOC win over Texas A&M and a competitive home loss to the Ducks showed that the Griz can still get up for, and perform well, in the big games. With strong goaltending, some nice defensemen and offensive firepower from the attack and midfield Montana can still be a force.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: They’ve got a great young head coach, and they get to play the remaining conference games at home in Missoula after a nice long rest to get healthy. Only two years removed from a D2 national title, the Griz have some experience on the big stage and some upperclassmen who can provide on-field leadership to a roster of mostly younger underclassmen.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: Two of the remaining games are with teams that sit above them in the standings, and both SFU and UW beat the Griz last season. Losses to Colorado State and Colorado on the road weren’t surprising, but the shocking loss to Boise State two weeks ago raise serious questions about whether UM can regain the magic that carried them the previous three seasons.
UNSUNG HERO: Middie Will Freihofer. While the offense is dominated by three studs who carry the scoring load for the Griz, he has quietly chipped in 8 goals and added an assist while also providing that key senior leadership so sorely needed.
5. Oregon State (4-2 Overall; 3-1 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: n/a
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #54
POWER RATING: 74.65
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Washington, Simon Fraser, Oregon (neutral field), at
Idaho, at Washington State
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Three conference wins against only one loss might have put OSU above Montana into the #4 slot, but that loss was to the Griz. Another young team with a new coach and an entirely new defense that still has a lot of questions to answer. A nice gut-check overtime win at Gonzaga and a narrow defeat the next day at Montana showed that the Beavers might be flying under the radar and are ready to truly break out.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: With only one conference loss, the Beavs control their own destiny and need no help to climb up the standings on their own. Two of the remaining games are eminently winnable, so OSU would need only one upset against any of the top three teams in the conference to secure a playoff berth. The Beavers could also sneak into the post-season at 5-4 if Montana or Washington, or both, stumble down the stretch.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: Four of five remaining games are also eminently lose-able, and with UW, SFU and UO up next in a row, the young Beavers could have their new-found confidence shaken should they lose all three games.
UNSUNG HERO: Goalie Brandt Vance. Replacing a graduated first-team All-PNCLL keeper left big shoes to fill, and he has stepped right in to the starter’s job and played well.
6. Idaho (3-3 Overall; 3-3 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: –
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #64
POWER RATING: 73.14
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Having already won three conference games gives the Vandals the nod for this slot. A close, competitive loss against Montana. A win over Gonzaga, for the first time in the school’s history. UI’s defense held SFU to only 15 goals up in BC, a season-low for an offensive juggernaut against PNCLL competition.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: Sweeping their final three games would be a tall order, but is not beyond the realm of possibility. A more reasonable scenario for moving up to #4 and grabbing a playoff slot would be to beat BSU and OSU and get some help, by having UW and UM falter down the stretch.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: Getting swept in their final three games is also a distinct possibility. The next game against a resurgent Boise State team would end any Idaho playoff hopes should the Vandals lose. UI already lost head-to-head to two of the teams above them in the standings. The offense hasn’t proven to be prolific enough to help in a goal-differential tie-breaker that involves UW and UM, against whom Idaho is a combined -14.
UNSUNG HERO: Attackman Eric Fletcher. On a team most noted mostly for it’s physical defense, this Junior has almost gone unnoticed, pumping in14 goals and adding 3 assists.
7. Boise State (2-5 Overall; 1-4 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: –
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #52
POWER RATING: 74.62
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Washington State, Gonzaga, Idaho, at Portland State
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Only the one conference win against four losses. But that lone victory was against #4 Montana, proving that the Broncos can definitely compete. The presence of a top-notch goaltender who provides senior leadership and can single-handedly keep his squad in the game against better foes. A team which has demonstrated a significant resurgence beginning with the close loss at OSU on March 8th, coming after a dismal stretch of consecutive losses extending all the way back to the ‘07 PNCLL semi-finals.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: The final four games are all eminently winnable, and all but one are at home. Boise has already played all of the top tier of PNCLL teams, giving the Broncos an edge over all the teams above them in the standings who still have games remaining against each other. The bottom half of the division, which they will start seeing the rest of the way, will not look that tough after the teams the Broncos have seen most recently. While Boise can certainly move up a few spots in the PNCLL standings, qualifying for playoffs would require not only a sweep to finish 5-4, but the team would also need significant help. The head-to-head win over UM helps greatly in a tie-breaker scenario, but maybe not if UW (who beat BSU by 9) is involved. Just finishing above .500 would be a very good accomplishment considering how the season began.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: They shouldn’t, unless the injury bug strikes or the recent stretch of strong performances proves to have been a fluke.
UNSUNG HERO: Middie Jeremy Bradburn. The Frosh has quietly made his presence known, and has emerged as the team’s third leading scorer, ahead of some more familiar names.
8. Gonzaga (2-8 Overall; 1-3 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: –
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #67
POWER RATING: 72.49
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Boise State, at Portland State, at Montana,
Washington, Simon Fraser
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Scoreboard. After opening with a win over a D2 opponent, the Zags dropped eight straight games to D1 foes before righting the ship with a recent rout of WSU. They put together a tough OOC schedule, for which the Bulldogs should be commended. But they also didn’t perform well in these games, which is why they are only ranked above two winless PNCLL teams.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: They probably can not, and if this is the case 2009 will be viewed as a disappointment for a team which is underrated and almost always competitive but just can’t seem to get over the hump. The overtime home loss to the Beavers was a wasted opportunity to get into the hunt for a playoff spot. The Zags seemingly have no glaring weaknesses, but also haven’t demonstrated any great team strengths. Their star attackman has appeared in only half the team’s games, and they really need his scoring output down the stretch.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: They should not, but remaining schedule IS the toughest in the conference, with four of the five games left against the PNCLL’s best four teams. But with a victory over winless PSU, the Zags will likely ensure that #8 is no lower than where they will end up.
UNSUNG HERO: LSM Daniel Spinelli. It’s hard to get noticed playing a position that doesn’t even technically make you one of the ten starters, but this Senior leader has been doing his thing for four years, and doing it very well.
9. Washington State (0-6 Overall; 0-5 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: –
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #82
POWER RATING: 65.86
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Boise State, at Portland State, Oregon, Oregon State
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Because they are still winless since 2004, and because the only team ranked lower is a first-year squad. After “guaranteeing some wins” on the public forums before the season began, the Cougs haven’t yet delivered, and also haven’t shown a significant improvement in their on-field competitiveness. Wazzou should have scheduled a couple more games against D2 opponents early in the season, to gain a win or two and with it some confidence. Not scheduling any OOC road games might also have proven to be a mistake, as it will keep proving tough to attract any visitors to Pullman in the coming years.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: They really can’t, unless the three higher-ranked teams they have yet to play either completely fall apart or fail to even show up. But a competitive contest with Boise State this weekend might help the team’s morale greatly. A win at Portland State next week would at least get the monkey off the Cats’ back.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: The worst-case scenario could still happen, if the Cougars lose to the Vikings and finish 0-10 for 2009.
UNSUNG HEROS: Attackmen Evan Addair and Blake Simpson. This pair of Frosh front-line players have chipped in four goals apiece and each had an assist, providing hope for the future.
9. Portland State (0-6 Overall; 0-5 Conference)
CURRENT PRODIGY TOP 25 RANKING: –
CURRENT LAXPOWER RANKING: #96
POWER RATING: 62.40
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: at Simon Fraser, Washington State, Gonzaga, Boise State
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Because they started here at the bottom as a first-year squad, forced into the upper division where everyone knew they would struggle mightily facing established D1 teams. But the Vikings have shown some promise for the future in their losses and even made an OOC trip down to California.
WHY THEY CAN MOVE UP: They have a home game left against winless WSU, and will likely come out very fired up to prevail over the Cougs. They have a capable, young coach who is a proven winner and who will surely help the team develop and continue to improve in all phases of play. A tough-nosed captain in James Taylor who created the team himself out of nothing and who plays with passion and heart, while providing the on-field leadership needed for future glory.
WHY THEY MIGHT DROP: They can not, statistically or even theoretically. Nobody outside their own program expected PSU to win a D1 game in ‘09.
UNSUNG HERO: Attackman Jose Garcia. He may not have any statistical production, but this tiny warrior (who might be the MCLA’s smallest player) is clearly loved by his teammates, who he consistently inspires by not backing down against anybody.
PNCLL Division 2
1. Southern Oregon (10-1 Overall, 2-0 Conference)
Prodigy Top 25 Poll Current Ranking: #17
LaxPower Current Ranking: #38
PR: 66.18
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Portland, @ Willamette
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Scoreboard. They beat Western Oregon 10-8 at the start of the season. To deny that would be silly. Their only loss comes to a ranked SLC opponent in double overtime.
WHY THEY COULD REMAIN HERE: An extremely effective offense has gotten them here. A stingy defense has kept the burden off the offense as well. Faceoffs have kept them with possessions for large percentages of the games.
WHY THEY COULD DROP: They are using a second string goalie who has had moments of struggle but has performed admirably. The midfield doesn’t have eye-popping depth and they don’t have many scoring options outside their big three (VanEgdom, White, Baumann). This is nitpicking really, but it could hurt them in the playoffs.
UNSUNG HERO: Greg Morelli (Goalie): The second string goalie has come in and provided help in cage when the starter Zach Baumann broke his thumb several weeks ago.
2. Western Oregon (7-3 Overall, 1-1 Conference)
Prodigy Top 25 Poll Current Ranking: #13
LaxPower Current Ranking: #18
PR: 70.77
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: @ College of Idaho, @ Willamette
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Scoreboard. If they had beaten SOU they’d clearly be #1. Despite that first loss they have been nothing short of dominant in the rest of their games.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: Dominating midfielders who possess the ball and win many faceoffs. An offense that scores in their sleep. A defense that has been able to limit looks on cage.
WHY THEY COULD DROP: Questions about long term solution at goalie. A largely untested defense for this season.
UNSUNG HERO: Kacey Bicking (Midfield): Ian Bohince’s pull man might be the fastest middie in the PNCLL. He scores goals too if you haven’t noticed.
3. Western Washington (2-5 Overall, 0-0 Conference)
Prodigy Top 25 Poll Current Ranking: #22
LaxPower Current Ranking: #45
PR: 65.51
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Pacific Lutheran, Puget Sound, @ Whitman, @ Central Washington
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Despite a 9 goal loss to WOU early in the season, they have performed admirably in OOC games which shows they are building strength.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: A very strong defense and a deep midfield. They still have all their intra-divisional games left and the #1 seed is still there for the taking. They missed the league title by an overtime goal last season, the post-season playoff experience could be crucial.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: An offense that seems to lack multiple options.
UNSUNG HERO: Unknown. (PUT IN YOUR GAME REPORTS!)
4. Whitman (3-1 Overall, 0-0 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #32
PR: 67.54
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: @Puget Sound, @ Central Washington, Pacific Lutheran, Western Washington
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: A conspicuous and frustrating lack of OOC games badly hurts their street cred. Despite losing to Western Oregon in their first game (and their goalie’s first game back from being abroad for one year), they are the only team in the North division that was able to score on Western, and they did so 13 times. They have been more than convincing in their 3 other games.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: An offense that can score if you cemented up the front of the cage. A defense that is underrated with a goalie that is underrated as well.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: A midfield that can be dominated between the boxes by depth and athleticism. Also, while other teams are gaining experience against OOC foes, this team sits in Walla Walla…
UNSUNG HERO: Kevin Wilson (Goalie): The senior who came back from abroad has gotten his groove back. If he stays there it’s likely his team will too.
5. Central Washington (2-2 Overall, 0-0 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #59
PR: 63.03
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: @ Puget Sound, @ Pacific Lutheran, Whitman, Western Washington
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Solid performances against conference teams.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: An intimidating defense and an offense that has multiple flashy options. When the offense runs it scores, when it doesn’t it doesn’t.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: That intimidating defense? Yeah it gets a lot of penalties by that very token. The big hits are unnecessary and keep a good team from being great. Depth at the midfield could also hurt in a playoff game if they get there.
UNSUNG HERO: Earl Gerlach (Goalie): The junior has stepped into cage to give this goalie-less team a last line of defense in cage.
6. Puget Sound (3-2 Overall, 0-0 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #75
PR: 59.53
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Central Washington, Whitman, @Western Washington, @Pacific Lutheran
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Two by-the-skin-of-their-teeth wins over Willamette and College of Idaho on their home turf keep the Loggers from divebombing and the season on life-support.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: Talented and athletic d-poles can limit the score and clear the ball.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: The offense can get the ball, but putting it in the net has been a problem.
UNSUNG HERO: Unknown. PUT IN YOUR GAME REPORTS
7. College of Idaho (2-4 Overall, 1-1 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #73
PR: 59.71
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Willamette, Western Oregon
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: A first time win over Pacific Lutheran gets them this high, as well as an admirable performance against ranked Montana State.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: Jeff Ball and Colin Burke are carrying this team on their shoulders. A win over Willamette or Western Oregon puts them in the playoffs.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: There is little depth, the scoring seems to be coming from only a couple of players, and the defense is largely inexperienced.
UNSUNG HERO: Unknown. (PUT IN YOUR GAME REPORTS!)
8. Pacific Lutheran (3-5 Overall, 0-0 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #71
PR: 60.14
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: Central Washington, @ Western Washington, Puget Sound, @ Whitman
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: A loss to College of Idaho on their home field puts them this low. They still control their own destiny with all four divisional games left on the schedule.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: An offense that has developed up to 5 or 6 legitimate options to score on any play. And Nic Tkachuk. And Greg Fredlund.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: A largely unknown quantity on defense that has not been able to stop premier scorers. The midfield also seems to be top-heavy with talent.
UNSUNG HERO: Luke Hansen (Midfield): Junior faceoff man has provided at the square and he has been a scoring option as well.
9. Portland (1-7 Overall, 1-2 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #88
PR: 53.53
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: @ Southern Oregon
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: An opening day win over Willamette is all that keeps them from the cellar. Outside of that upset win there is little to hold on to for this season for the Pilots.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: With only a game at Southern Oregon there is little chance of making any noise in the league until 2010.
WHY THEY COULD FALL: If they mail it in against SOU it could look very bad.
UNSUNG HERO: Ken Ankrom (Defense): The team president is the leader on the sidelines and is the reason this team is in the league at all.
10. Willamette (3-7 Overall, 0-1 Conference)
LaxPower Current Ranking: #78
PR: 56.16
REMAINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULE: @ College of Idaho, Western Oregon, Southern Oregon
WHY THEY’RE RANKED HERE: Nothing can justify them being higher in the league when they are the only team that hasn’t beaten anyone in the league.
WHY THEY COULD RISE: Dangerously talented attackmen who score in bunches on any defense. A group of defenders that are gelling and learning to play together along with a scary good young goalie.
WHY THEY COULD STAY HERE: Youth and inconsistency rarely make a playoff run. It’s still possible, but they’ll have to put W’s on the board to convince anyone of their potential.
UNSUNG HERO: Graham Marshall (Goalie): Freshman has played through partial groin tear and kept games within reach that in the past would have been double digit margins.
